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The four contender tests

Four things you can check before opening night. Teams that pass all four have won 16 of the last 25 titles, 64%.

The four contender testsFour preseason checks that identify contender profiles, and the historical results for teams that passed them.
Transcript

One: a player at 1.73 or better on AQI. Two: a second player at 1.73 or better. Three: a top-10 net rating. Four: a top-10 defense. Of the 105 teams since 2001-02 that passed all four, 16 won the title, about 15 percent. Of the 80 that passed two, 3 won, about 4 percent. Every champion since 2001-02 had a player at 1.73 or better. Passing all four makes a team a real contender; it does not pick the champion.

  1. A player at 1.73 or better on AQI on the current roster.
  2. A second player at 1.73 or better.
  3. A top-10 net rating the season before.
  4. A top-10 defense the season before.

Of the 105 teams since 2001-02 that started a season passing all four, 16 won the title, about 15%. Of the 80 that passed two, three won, about 4%. The full history and this season's case for each contender are in the 2026-27 contenders preview.

2026-27: every team by tests passed

4 of 45 teamsCeltics, Pistons, Knicks, Thunder, Spurs
3 of 43 teamsNuggets, Rockets, Timberwolves
2 of 44 teamsHornets, Cavaliers, 76ers, Raptors
1 of 45 teamsHawks, Warriors, Heat, Suns, Trail Blazers
0 of 413 teamsNets, Bulls, Mavericks, Pacers, Clippers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Pelicans, Magic, Kings, Jazz, Wizards

Tests use only information available before the season: rosters as of October 13, 2026, and 2025-26 regular-season net and defensive ratings.

Essays on this from the newsletter

2026-10-10 · Key findings2026-27 NBA Preview: Five Teams Pass the Four Tests That Found 16 of the Last 25 ChampionsA 1.73 player, a second one, a top-10 net rating and a top-10 defense. Since 2001-02, teams that checked all four boxes before the season…2026-10-09 · Key findingsThe NBA's Best Offense Is 0 for 16 Without a Top-10 Defense"Defense wins championships" is half right. Champions are balanced, but the league's best defense has turned into a title far more often…2026-10-07 · Key findings73 Wins, One Game 7, and the Case for the Second StarAcross 775 NBA teams, the second-best player's number reads the standings better than the superstar's. Then June hands the trophy back.2026-07-08 · SubstackHow to Win a Ring Without a SuperstarThe Knicks just did it — and their Finals MVP wasn't even the best player on his own team. That's not an insult. It's the whole strategy.

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