Houston Rockets 2026-27
The Houston Rockets went 52-30 in 2025-26 and ranked 6th in net rating and 6th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 47.5. Our model has them at 47 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 47-35, the No. 5 seed in the West. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
Can a 33-year-old VanVleet coming off an ACL tear and an ageing Kevin Durant carry Houston past the first round after two straight 52-win seasons ended early?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: high.
Bench rotation
Reed Sheppard · Tari Eason · Marcus Smart · Bogdan Bogdanovic · Steven Adams · Clint Capela
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
- Kevin Durant 1.85
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Kevin Durant 78; Alperen Sengun 72; Fred VanVleet 0 (70% of possible games)
Injuries
- Fred VanVleet · Available (managed)Back from a right ACL tear (Sep 2025). Played Oct 9: 17 pts in 24 min.
- Clint Capela · UnclearDid not play Oct 9; reason not reported
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | F | 38 | $43.9M | 1.85 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Alperen Sengun | C | 24 | $35.6M | 1.19 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Fred VanVleet | G | 32 | $25.0M | 1.04 | 2024-25 | Day-To-Day |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | F | 23 | $23.6M | 0.93 | 2025-26 | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | G | 34 | $16.0M | — | ||
| Steven Adams | C | 33 | $13.0M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Amen Thompson | G | 23 | $12.3M | 1.35 | 2025-26 | |
| Reed Sheppard | G | 22 | $11.1M | 1.43 | 2025-26 | |
| Clint Capela | C | 32 | $7.0M | — | ||
| Marcus Smart | G | 32 | $5.4M | 1.08 | 2025-26 | |
| Quadir CopelandRookie | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Isaiah Crawford | F | 24 | — | — | ||
| Tari Eason | F | 25 | — | 0.93 | 2025-26 | |
| Sean Pedulla | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| Julian Phillips | F | 22 | — | — | ||
| Jae'Sean Tate | F | 30 | — | — | ||
| Bruce ThorntonRookie | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Oscar Tshiebwe | C | 26 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Houston Rockets win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 47.5 (BetMGM 48.5 · BetRivers 47.5 · Caesars 48.5 · DraftKings 47.5).
How many games will the Rockets win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 47-35. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Rockets?
Fred VanVleet: Available (managed) (Back from a right ACL tear (Sep 2025). Played Oct 9: 17 pts in 24 min.); Clint Capela: Unclear (Did not play Oct 9; reason not reported).
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.