Who's actually good in the NBA, and the math that says why.
The companion site to the DataDunkNBA newsletter. Every team's projected record against the Vegas win totals, team rosters and available salary data, explainer videos and charts, and the defense-first metrics behind all of it. Built from public data.
Rosters and AQI as of October 13, 2026. Every player's numbers → · What the acronyms mean →
Start here: six ideas that explain who wins
Each one has its own page with the formula, the data and the essay behind it.
Watch: five ideas in under 20 seconds each
Transcript
One: a player at 1.73 or better on AQI. Two: a second player at 1.73 or better. Three: a top-10 net rating. Four: a top-10 defense. Of the 105 teams since 2001-02 that passed all four, 16 won the title, about 15 percent. Of the 80 that passed two, 3 won, about 4 percent. Every champion since 2001-02 had a player at 1.73 or better. Passing all four makes a team a real contender; it does not pick the champion.
Transcript
Dunk 1.81. Two free throws about 1.52. Rim attempt 1.26. Corner three 1.17. Above-the-break three 1.07. Paint non-rim 0.86. Mid-range 0.86. Getting fouled is the second-best outcome in the sport.
Transcript
AQI is on-court net rating times usage times true shooting divided by 0.550. The top eight on current rosters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6.59, Victor Wembanyama 6.44, Chet Holmgren 4.26, Nikola Jokic 4.14, Ajay Mitchell 3.75, Cade Cunningham 3.55, Jalen Duren 3.48, Jayson Tatum 3.28. Every champion had a player at 1.73 or better. 41 players on current rosters clear it. AQI includes teammates and opponents: it describes a player's minutes, not his effect alone.
Transcript
WEV is 0.30 offense plus 0.60 defense plus 0.10 clutch, so defense counts double. 25 of the last 26 champions finished in WEV's top ten. The one miss was the 2001 Lakers, at No. 11. It finds the real contenders. It doesn't pick the champion.
Transcript
Across 480 team-seasons from 2011 to 2026, top-earner availability correlates with regular-season win percentage at plus 0.47. Payroll concentration correlates at plus 0.28. Paying stars isn't the problem; playing without them is. Payroll Fragility ran against winning in all 16 seasons, r equals minus 0.394.
Our 2026-27 best bets and leans
Where our model sits five or more wins from the betting line. Seven or more is a best bet. Our record blends 75% market line and 25% model, then rounds and balances league wins. Lines: October 9-13 snapshot. The full reasoning is in the preview. Predictions are about basketball, not betting advice.
| Team | Line | Model | Our record | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 43.5 | 30 | 40-42 | Best bet: under |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 37 | 31-51 | Best bet: over |
| Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 29 | 35-47 | Best bet: under |
| Washington Wizards | 34.5 | 26 | 32-50 | Best bet: under |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 50.5 | 42 | 48-34 | Best bet: under |
| Charlotte Hornets | 38.5 | 46 | 40-42 | Best bet: over |
| Detroit Pistons | 48.5 | 55 | 50-32 | Lean: over |
| Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 26 | 22-60 | Lean: over |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 40 | 44-38 | Lean: under |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 25.5 | 31 | 27-55 | Lean: over |
Charts
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Every essay sorted by the question it answers, each linked to the metric and team pages behind it.