Utah Jazz 2026-27
The Utah Jazz went 22-60 in 2025-26 and ranked 27th in net rating and 29th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 37.5. Our model has them at 29 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 35-47, the No. 10 seed in the West. The model sits 8.7 wins below the line, so our call is the under, one of our six best bets.
The question
With Nurkic out at least a month, does Jaren Jackson Jr. start at center, and do Peterson and Ace Bailey both start or does Bailey become a sixth man, for a team that ranked last in points allowed?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: low.
Bench rotation
Jaxson Hayes · Brice Sensabaugh · Isaiah Collier · Kyle Filipowski · Josh Okogie · Jusuf Nurkic
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
None. Every champion since 2001-02 had at least one. Why that matters.
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Jaren Jackson Jr. 48; Lauri Markkanen 42; Josh Green 58 (57% of possible games)
Injuries
- Jusuf Nurkic · OutPartial plantar plate tear, second toe, right foot (Oct 7)
- Lauri Markkanen · Questionable (Rotowire Oct 12)Detail not reported
Rookies to watch
- Darryn Peterson (No. 2): Projected starting SG. 23 pts vs DEN on Oct 6 but 1-8 from three across two games and 5 fouls. Hardy: "He's still adjusting to the length as it relates to closeouts."
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | F | 27 | $49.0M | -0.56 | 2025-26 | |
| Lauri Markkanen | F | 29 | $46.1M | -0.54 | 2025-26 | |
| Josh Green | G | 25 | $14.7M | -1.14 | 2024-25 | |
| Ace Bailey | G | 20 | $9.5M | -2.19 | 2025-26 | |
| Keyonte George | G | 22 | $6.6M | -2.73 | 2025-26 | |
| Brice Sensabaugh | F | 22 | $4.9M | -2.69 | 2025-26 | |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | G | 29 | $3.9M | -0.53 | 2025-26 | |
| Kyle Filipowski | F | 22 | $3.0M | -1.43 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Isaiah Collier | G | 22 | $2.8M | -2.93 | 2025-26 | |
| Jonas AidooRookie | C | 23 | — | — | ||
| Trey Alexander | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Mo Bamba | C | 28 | — | — | ||
| Tamar BatesRookie | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Terrell Brown Jr.Rookie | G | 28 | — | — | ||
| Taylor FunkRookie | F | 28 | — | — | ||
| Jaxson Hayes | C | 26 | — | 0.51 | 2025-26 | |
| Blake Hinson | F | 26 | — | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Harrison Ingram | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| Jusuf Nurkic | C | 32 | — | -1.52 | 2025-26 | Out |
| Josh Okogie | G | 28 | — | 0.29 | 2025-26 | |
| Darryn PetersonRookie | G | 19 | — | — | ||
| Mohamed WagueRookie | F | 26 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Utah Jazz win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 37.5 (BetMGM 37.5 · BetRivers 37.5 · Caesars 38.5 · DraftKings 36.5 · bet365 37.5).
How many games will the Jazz win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 35-47. The model sits 8.7 wins below the line, so our call is the under, one of our six best bets.
Who is injured for the Jazz?
Jusuf Nurkic: Out (Partial plantar plate tear, second toe, right foot (Oct 7)); Lauri Markkanen: Questionable (Rotowire Oct 12) (Detail not reported).
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.