Portland Trail Blazers 2026-27
The Portland Trail Blazers went 42-40 in 2025-26 and ranked 19th in net rating and 14th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 41.5. Our model has them at 42 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 41-41, the No. 7 seed in the West. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
Does Nori keep starting Morant and Lillard together despite saying it 'doesn't make sense' defensively, or move one of them (or Holiday) to the bench?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: low.
Bench rotation
Jrue Holiday · Scoot Henderson · Robert Williams III
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
- Ja Morant 2.26 (2024-25)
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Ja Morant 20; Damian Lillard 0; Jrue Holiday 53 (29% of possible games)
Injuries
- Shaedon Sharpe · OutTorn meniscus in an August workout
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant | G | 27 | $42.2M | 2.26 | 2024-25 | |
| Jrue Holiday | G | 36 | $34.8M | 1.44 | 2025-26 | |
| Shaedon Sharpe | G | 23 | $20.1M | -0.48 | 2025-26 | Out |
| Toumani Camara | F | 26 | $18.1M | 0.10 | 2025-26 | |
| Scoot Henderson | G | 22 | $13.6M | -0.22 | 2024-25 | |
| Damian Lillard | G | 36 | $13.4M | 0.38 | 2024-25 | Day-To-Day |
| Deni Avdija | F | 25 | $13.1M | 0.11 | 2025-26 | |
| Donovan Clingan | C | 22 | $7.5M | 0.06 | 2025-26 | |
| Yang Hansen | C | 21 | $4.6M | — | ||
| Micah Potter | C | 28 | $2.8M | — | ||
| Vit Krejci | G | 26 | $2.7M | -0.21 | 2025-26 | |
| Sidy Cissoko | G | 22 | $2.5M | -0.24 | 2025-26 | |
| Branden Carlson | C | 27 | — | — | ||
| Jayson Kent | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| Jaylen Martin | G | 22 | — | — | ||
| Jeremy Sochan | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| John Tonje | F | 25 | — | — | ||
| Robert Williams III | C | 28 | — | 0.60 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Chris Youngblood | G | 24 | — | — | Day-To-Day |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Portland Trail Blazers win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 41.5 (BetMGM 41.5 · BetRivers 41.5 · Caesars 41.5 · DraftKings 41.5 · bet365 41.5).
How many games will the Trail Blazers win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 41-41. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Trail Blazers?
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (Torn meniscus in an August workout).
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.