2026-27 predictions tracker
Every team's projected record next to the betting line, and from opening night, each team's live record and the pace it's on against its win total. A lean means our model sits five or more wins from the line; seven or more is a best bet. Since 2002-03, the model's side won 59% of 247 five-win gaps and 62% of 123 seven-win gaps.
East
| Seed | Team | Line | Model | Our record | Call | Live | Pace | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 52.5 | 51 | 52-30 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 51.5 | 53 | 52-30 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 48.5 | 55 | 50-32 | Lean: over | 0-0 | — | — |
| 4 | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.5 | 42 | 48-34 | Best bet: under | 0-0 | — | — |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.5 | 46 | 48-34 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 46.5 | 45 | 46-36 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 46.5 | 43 | 45-37 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 43.5 | 42 | 43-39 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 9 | Atlanta Hawks | 43.5 | 42 | 43-39 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 10 | Charlotte Hornets | 38.5 | 46 | 40-42 | Best bet: over | 0-0 | — | — |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 43.5 | 30 | 40-42 | Best bet: under | 0-0 | — | — |
| 12 | Washington Wizards | 34.5 | 26 | 32-50 | Best bet: under | 0-0 | — | — |
| 13 | Chicago Bulls | 29.5 | 32 | 30-52 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 14 | Milwaukee Bucks | 25.5 | 31 | 27-55 | Lean: over | 0-0 | — | — |
| 15 | Brooklyn Nets | 24.5 | 26 | 25-57 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
West
| Seed | Team | Line | Model | Our record | Call | Live | Pace | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 65 | 63-19 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60 | 60-22 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 52 | 49-33 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 45 | 48-34 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47 | 47-35 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 40 | 44-38 | Lean: under | 0-0 | — | — |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 42 | 41-41 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 41 | 40-42 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 42 | 38-44 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 29 | 35-47 | Best bet: under | 0-0 | — | — |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 31 | 33-49 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 37 | 31-51 | Best bet: over | 0-0 | — | — |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 30 | 29-53 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 32 | 29-53 | — | 0-0 | — | — |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 26 | 22-60 | Lean: over | 0-0 | — | — |
Award and playoff picks
| Award | Our pick | Odds | Market favorite |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +350 | Victor Wembanyama +210 |
| Defensive Player of the Year | Victor Wembanyama | -360 | Victor Wembanyama -360 |
| Rookie of the Year | Caleb Wilson | +300 | Wilson, Boozer +300 |
| Sixth Man of the Year | Ajay Mitchell | +500 | Ajay Mitchell +500 |
| Most Improved Player | Brandon Miller | +1200 | Dylan Harper +900 |
| Coach of the Year | J.B. Bickerstaff | not in top 15 | Darko Rajakovic +800 |
| Champion | Oklahoma City | +270 | OKC / San Antonio +270 |
| East | New York | +340 | New York +340 |
| West | Oklahoma City | +145 | Oklahoma City +145 |
All-NBA
First: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama, Nikola Jokić, Cade Cunningham, Luka Dončić
Second: Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Chet Holmgren, Anthony Edwards
Third: Karl-Anthony Towns, LaMelo Ball, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Jalen Duren
All-Stars
East: Cade Cunningham, Jaylen Brown, Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kawhi Leonard, Tyrese Maxey, Jalen Duren, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Brandon Miller, Jalen Johnson
West: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama, Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić, Anthony Edwards, Chet Holmgren, LaMelo Ball, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Jamal Murray, Stephen Curry, Alperen Sengun
Win totals: median of BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers, Oct 9-13, 2026 (DraftKings where the books split evenly). Odds as of October 7-13, 2026: DraftKings via VegasInsider and SportsbookReview, with Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man from BetMGM. Live records from ESPN. "On pace" compares each team's current win rate over 82 games with the line. Predictions are about basketball, not betting advice.