Indiana Pacers 2026-27
The Indiana Pacers went 19-63 in 2025-26 and ranked 26th in net rating and 23rd in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 43.5. Our model has them at 30 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 40-42, the No. 11 seed in the East. The model sits 13.9 wins below the line, so our call is the under, one of our six best bets.
The question
How close to his pre-Achilles self is Tyrese Haliburton, and does the Zubac-Siakam frontcourt space the floor well enough to get a 19-63 team back to the playoffs?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: high.
Bench rotation
Kelly Oubre Jr. · T.J. McConnell · Jarace Walker · Obi Toppin · Larry Nance Jr. · Ben Sheppard · Quenton Jackson
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
None. Every champion since 2001-02 had at least one. Why that matters.
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Tyrese Haliburton 0; Pascal Siakam 62; Ivica Zubac 48 (41% of possible games)
Injuries
- Johnny Furphy · OutTorn right ACL
- Tyrese Haliburton · AvailableBack from a torn Achilles (Game 7, 2025 Finals). 24 pts, 7 ast in the Oct 7 preseason opener.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton | G | 26 | $48.9M | 1.05 | 2024-25 | Day-To-Day |
| Pascal Siakam | F | 32 | $48.9M | -1.63 | 2025-26 | |
| Ivica Zubac | C | 29 | $20.3M | -0.34 | 2025-26 | |
| Andrew Nembhard | G | 26 | $19.6M | -2.56 | 2025-26 | |
| Obi Toppin | F | 28 | $15.0M | -0.57 | 2024-25 | |
| T.J. McConnell | G | 34 | $11.0M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Aaron Nesmith | G | 26 | $11.0M | -1.41 | 2025-26 | |
| Jarace Walker | F | 23 | $8.5M | -2.24 | 2025-26 | |
| Ben Sheppard | G | 25 | $5.0M | -1.25 | 2025-26 | |
| Jay Huff | C | 29 | $2.7M | -1.39 | 2025-26 | |
| Quenton Jackson | G | 28 | $2.6M | — | ||
| Johnny Furphy | G | 21 | $2.3M | — | ||
| Kobe Brown | G | 26 | — | — | ||
| James Johnson | F | 39 | — | — | ||
| Larry Nance Jr. | F | 33 | — | — | ||
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | G | 30 | — | -0.39 | 2025-26 | |
| Jalen Slawson | F | 26 | — | — | ||
| Braden SmithRookie | G | 23 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Indiana Pacers win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 43.5 (BetMGM 43.5 · BetRivers 43.5 · Caesars 43.5 · DraftKings 44.5 · bet365 44.5).
How many games will the Pacers win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 40-42. The model sits 13.9 wins below the line, so our call is the under, one of our six best bets.
Who is injured for the Pacers?
Johnny Furphy: Out (Torn right ACL); Tyrese Haliburton: Available (Back from a torn Achilles (Game 7, 2025 Finals). 24 pts, 7 ast in the Oct 7 preseason opener.).
East projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 52.5 | 52-30 |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 51.5 | 52-30 |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 48.5 | 50-32 |
| 4 | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 46.5 | 46-36 |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 46.5 | 45-37 |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 9 | Atlanta Hawks | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 10 | Charlotte Hornets | 38.5 | 40-42 |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 43.5 | 40-42 |
| 12 | Washington Wizards | 34.5 | 32-50 |
| 13 | Chicago Bulls | 29.5 | 30-52 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Bucks | 25.5 | 27-55 |
| 15 | Brooklyn Nets | 24.5 | 25-57 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.