Orlando Magic 2026-27
The Orlando Magic went 45-37 in 2025-26 and ranked 17th in net rating and 11th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 43.5. Our model has them at 42 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 43-39, the No. 8 seed in the East. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
Can first-time coach Sean Sweeney keep Wagner and Suggs healthy and fix a 28th-ranked open-3 shooting team to win the franchise's first playoff series since 2010?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: high.
Bench rotation
Anthony Black · Nikola Vucevic · Tristan da Silva · Jase Richardson · Goga Bitadze · Jonathan Isaac · Jevon Carter · Noah Penda
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
None. Every champion since 2001-02 had at least one. Why that matters.
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Franz Wagner 34; Paolo Banchero 72; Desmond Bane 82 (76% of possible games)
Injuries
- Jalen Suggs · Day-to-dayIllness; missed the Oct 7 preseason opener
- Anthony Black · Day-to-dayRight ankle sprain; missed Oct 7
- Noah Penda · Out (preseason)Right hamstring strain
- Jonathan Isaac · AwayPersonal reasons (Oct 7)
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franz Wagner | F | 25 | $41.8M | 1.03 | 2025-26 | |
| Paolo Banchero | F | 23 | $41.5M | -0.02 | 2025-26 | |
| Desmond Bane | G | 28 | $39.4M | 0.59 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Jalen Suggs | G | 25 | $32.4M | 1.23 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | C | 27 | $18.1M | 0.33 | 2025-26 | |
| Jonathan Isaac | F | 29 | $14.5M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Anthony Black | G | 22 | $10.1M | -0.08 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Goga Bitadze | C | 27 | $7.6M | — | ||
| Tristan da Silva | F | 25 | $4.0M | 0.45 | 2025-26 | |
| Jase Richardson | G | 20 | $3.1M | — | ||
| Noah Penda | F | 21 | $2.2M | — | ||
| Malaki Branham | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| Jamal Cain | F | 27 | — | — | ||
| Jevon Carter | G | 31 | — | — | ||
| Colin Castleton | C | 26 | — | — | ||
| JD Davison | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| Kevin Knox II | F | 27 | — | — | ||
| Alex Morales | G | 28 | — | — | ||
| Izaiyah NelsonRookie | F | 23 | — | — | Out | |
| Mike SharavjamtsRookie | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| Nikola Vucevic | C | 35 | — | -0.25 | 2025-26 |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Orlando Magic win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 43.5 (BetMGM 43.5 · BetRivers 43.5 · Caesars 44.5 · DraftKings 43.5 · bet365 43.5).
How many games will the Magic win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 43-39. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Magic?
Jalen Suggs: Day-to-day (Illness; missed the Oct 7 preseason opener); Anthony Black: Day-to-day (Right ankle sprain; missed Oct 7); Noah Penda: Out (preseason) (Right hamstring strain); Jonathan Isaac: Away (Personal reasons (Oct 7)).
East projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 52.5 | 52-30 |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 51.5 | 52-30 |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 48.5 | 50-32 |
| 4 | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 46.5 | 46-36 |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 46.5 | 45-37 |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 9 | Atlanta Hawks | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 10 | Charlotte Hornets | 38.5 | 40-42 |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 43.5 | 40-42 |
| 12 | Washington Wizards | 34.5 | 32-50 |
| 13 | Chicago Bulls | 29.5 | 30-52 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Bucks | 25.5 | 27-55 |
| 15 | Brooklyn Nets | 24.5 | 25-57 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.