Miami Heat 2026-27
The Miami Heat went 43-39 in 2025-26 and ranked 13th in net rating and 13th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 46.5. Our model has them at 43 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 45-37, the No. 7 seed in the East. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
How does Spoelstra fit Giannis and Bam together offensively, and where does the 3-point shooting come from with a 36-year-old Klay Thompson and no settled backup point guard?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: high.
Bench rotation
Tim Hardaway Jr. · Bobby Portis · Nikola Jovic · Simone Fontecchio · Pelle Larsson · Nick Richards · Bez Mbeng
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 1.97
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Giannis Antetokounmpo 36; Bam Adebayo 73; Andrew Wiggins 68 (69% of possible games)
Injuries
- D. Smith (first name not shown on Covers; listed SG) · OutCalf (Oct 1)
Rookies to watch
- Ryan Conwell (No. 37): Acquired via OKC. B/R names him an alternative at SG behind Thompson. RealGM lists him as limited playing time.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | F | 31 | $58.5M | 1.97 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Bam Adebayo | C | 29 | $49.5M | 1.66 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Andrew Wiggins | F | 31 | $30.2M | 0.04 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Klay Thompson | G | 36 | $17.5M | -0.89 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Nikola Jovic | F | 23 | $16.2M | — | ||
| Bobby Portis | F | 31 | $14.5M | -2.01 | 2025-26 | |
| Davion Mitchell | G | 28 | $12.4M | 0.70 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Dru Smith | G | 28 | $2.6M | -0.48 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Pelle Larsson | G | 25 | $2.3M | 0.38 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Myron Gardner | F | 25 | $2.2M | — | ||
| Ryan ConwellRookie | G | 22 | — | — | ||
| Tre DonaldsonRookie | G | 22 | — | — | ||
| Simone Fontecchio | F | 30 | — | 0.73 | 2025-26 | |
| Vladislav Goldin | C | 25 | — | — | ||
| J'Vonne HadleyRookie | F | 24 | — | — | ||
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | G | 34 | — | 0.94 | 2025-26 | |
| Keshad Johnson | F | 25 | — | — | Out | |
| Kylor Kelley | C | 29 | — | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Gabe MadsenRookie | G | 25 | — | — | ||
| Bez MbengRookie | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Lester Quinones | G | 25 | — | — | ||
| Nick Richards | C | 28 | — | — | ||
| Ian SchieffelinRookie | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| Dennis Smith Jr. | G | 28 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Miami Heat win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 46.5 (BetMGM 46.5 · BetRivers 46.5 · Caesars 46.5 · DraftKings 45.5 · bet365 46.5).
How many games will the Heat win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 45-37. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Heat?
D. Smith (first name not shown on Covers; listed SG): Out (Calf (Oct 1)).
East projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 52.5 | 52-30 |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 51.5 | 52-30 |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 48.5 | 50-32 |
| 4 | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 46.5 | 46-36 |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 46.5 | 45-37 |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 9 | Atlanta Hawks | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 10 | Charlotte Hornets | 38.5 | 40-42 |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 43.5 | 40-42 |
| 12 | Washington Wizards | 34.5 | 32-50 |
| 13 | Chicago Bulls | 29.5 | 30-52 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Bucks | 25.5 | 27-55 |
| 15 | Brooklyn Nets | 24.5 | 25-57 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.