Milwaukee Bucks 2026-27
The Milwaukee Bucks went 32-50 in 2025-26 and ranked 25th in net rating and 27th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 25.5. Our model has them at 31 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 27-55, the No. 14 seed in the East. The model sits 5.3 wins above the line, so our call is the over.
The question
In the first season after Giannis, who wins the open position battles (Rollins vs Porter Jr. at point, Ware vs Turner minutes), and does Milwaukee lean into development or competing?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: low.
Bench rotation
Kevin Porter Jr. · Kel'el Ware · Gary Trent Jr. · Caris LeVert · AJ Green · Kasparas Jakucionis · Ousmane Dieng · Brayden Burries
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
None. Every champion since 2001-02 had at least one. Why that matters.
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Tyler Herro 33; Myles Turner 71; Kyle Kuzma 69 (67% of possible games)
Injuries
No significant injuries reported.
Rookies to watch
- Brayden Burries (No. 10): B/R says he could challenge for a backcourt starting spot.
- Nate Ament (No. 13): Acquired from MIA in the Giannis trade. RealGM lists him as limited playing time.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | G | 26 | $33.0M | -0.47 | 2025-26 | |
| Myles Turner | C | 30 | $26.6M | -1.13 | 2025-26 | |
| Kyle Kuzma | F | 31 | $20.3M | -1.77 | 2025-26 | |
| Caris LeVert | G | 32 | $14.8M | -0.05 | 2025-26 | |
| AJ Green | G | 27 | $10.0M | -0.50 | 2025-26 | |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | F | 25 | $5.9M | 0.73 | 2025-26 | |
| Kevin Porter Jr. | G | 26 | $5.4M | -1.04 | 2025-26 | |
| Kel'el Ware | C | 22 | $4.7M | -0.36 | 2025-26 | |
| Ryan Rollins | G | 24 | $4.0M | -0.92 | 2025-26 | |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | G | 20 | $3.8M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Johni Broome | F | 24 | $2.2M | — | ||
| Kam Jones | G | 24 | $2.2M | — | ||
| Nate AmentRookie | F | 19 | — | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Brayden BurriesRookie | G | 21 | — | — | Day-To-Day | |
| John Butler Jr.Rookie | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| Ousmane Dieng | F | 23 | — | -1.73 | 2025-26 | |
| Bogoljub MarkovicRookie | F | 21 | — | — | ||
| Pete Nance | F | 26 | — | — | ||
| Cormac Ryan | G | 27 | — | — | ||
| Jericho Sims | C | 27 | — | -1.43 | 2025-26 | |
| Jake StephensRookie | C | 26 | — | — | ||
| Gary Trent Jr. | G | 27 | — | -2.07 | 2025-26 |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Milwaukee Bucks win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 25.5 (BetMGM 25.5 · BetRivers 25.5 · Caesars 26.5 · DraftKings 25.5 · bet365 25.5).
How many games will the Bucks win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 27-55. The model sits 5.3 wins above the line, so our call is the over.
Who is injured for the Bucks?
No significant injuries were reported as of October 13, 2026.
East projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 52.5 | 52-30 |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 51.5 | 52-30 |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 48.5 | 50-32 |
| 4 | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 46.5 | 46-36 |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 46.5 | 45-37 |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 9 | Atlanta Hawks | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 10 | Charlotte Hornets | 38.5 | 40-42 |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 43.5 | 40-42 |
| 12 | Washington Wizards | 34.5 | 32-50 |
| 13 | Chicago Bulls | 29.5 | 30-52 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Bucks | 25.5 | 27-55 |
| 15 | Brooklyn Nets | 24.5 | 25-57 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.