Every chart we make for the newsletter, full size. Free to share with a link back. The reasoning behind each one is in the 2026-27 preview.
Explainer videos
The four contender tests. Four preseason checks that identify contender profiles, and the historical results for teams that passed them. Explainer →What every NBA shot is worth. Expected points per attempt, from the dunk at 1.81 down to the mid-range jumper at 0.86. Field-goal values use 219,527 attempts from the 2024-25 regular season; two free throws are calculated at 76% shooting. Explainer →AQI: who a team is built around. The Anchor Quality Index for the top eight players on current rosters, against the 1.73 line every champion has had. Explainer →WEV: a contender filter. Winning Expected Value weights defense twice as heavily as offense. 25 of the last 26 champions finished in its top ten. Explainer →Payroll risk is availability risk. Why teams lose when their highest-paid players don't play: availability, not payroll concentration, is what tracks winning. Explainer →
NBA title odds vs. history, 2026-27
The sportsbooks' title share for the top 12 teams next to what teams with the same preseason profile have won since 2001-02.
2026-27 NBA win totals vs. last season
How far each team's consensus win total moves from its 2025-26 record. Orange: our six best bets.
Eastern Conference 2026-27 projections
Projected seed, record, line, model and lean for all 15 East teams.
Western Conference 2026-27 projections
Projected seed, record, line, model and lean for all 15 West teams.
2026-27 MVP odds next to AQI
The MVP market next to each candidate's AQI and on-court net rating.
2026-27 Rookie of the Year race
Rookie of the Year odds with preseason starts, minutes and points.
Our 2026-27 award picks
MVP to Coach of the Year, next to the sportsbook favorites.
