Shot value: what every NBA shot is worth
Two free throws are worth more than every shot in basketball except a dunk. Here is the full price list, from 219,527 attempts.
| Shot | Expected points |
|---|---|
| Dunk | 1.81 |
| Two free throws (76% shooter) | ≈1.52 |
| Rim attempt | 1.26 |
| Corner three | 1.17 |
| Above-the-break three | 1.07 |
| Paint, non-rim | 0.86 |
| Mid-range | 0.86 |
How to read it
Each number is the average points a shot of that type produced, counting misses as zero. The free throws are the value of a two-shot foul at league-average 76% shooting, which is why they belong on the list even though they are not field goals.
What it says
The mid-range jumper and the floater in the paint are tied at 0.86. The corner three beats the above-the-break three by a tenth of a point, and the gap between a three and a long two is about a fifth of a point every time it comes up. Getting fouled is the second-best outcome in the sport.
Expected points per shot fit on 219,527 field-goal attempts from the 2024-25 regular season and checked on 14,377 held-out 2024-25 playoff attempts. Two free throws are a derived value at 76%.
Read more: The free-throw paradox.