From the newsletter · 2026-10-05
Source essay: 2026-10-05. Research companion published 2026-10-14.
The NBA Free-Throw Paradox: Value vs. Shot-Diet Trends
Two free throws yield about 1.52 points, behind only a dunk among the listed opportunities. Yet free-throw rate declined as three-point attempts and offensive efficiency rose. This analysis compares scoring value with the league's changing shot diet, asking whether the pursuit of better shots has overlooked the line.
≈1.52points from two free throws
19.8% → 41.0%three-point attempt rate
.304 → .264free-throw rate
Three findings
- Two free throws are worth about 1.52 points, behind only a dunk (1.81) and ahead of a rim attempt (1.26), a corner three (1.17) and an above-the-break three (1.07).
- Over the same span, three-point attempt rate rose from 19.8% to 41.0% and league offensive rating rose from 106.1 to 114.2.
- Free-throw rate fell from .304 to .264, bottoming at .244 in 2023-24, and moves against three-point rate at −0.905.
Expected points per opportunity
Field goals: 219,527 attempts, 2024-25 regular season. Two free throws calculated at 76% shooting.
These are the headline numbers. The argument, the players and the method are in the full essay.