WEV: Winning Expected Value
A defense-weighted grade of how much winning a team's profile is worth. It has put 25 of the last 26 champions in its top ten.
| Piece | Weight |
|---|---|
| DEV (defense) | 0.60 |
| OEV (offense) | 0.30 |
| CEV (clutch) | 0.10 |
The formula
WEV = 0.30 × OEV + 0.60 × DEV + 0.10 × CEV, on a 0 to 25 scale. Defense gets twice the weight of offense, and when the weights were re-fit from scratch on seasons the model never saw, the defensive weight came back at about 0.58.
For new scoring we use the version without the clutch term, (0.30 × OEV + 0.60 × DEV) ÷ 0.90, because two of the three clutch inputs are only known after a title is won.
A filter, not a picker
Across the full panel, 25 of 26 champions finished in WEV's top ten and 22 of 26 in its top five. The one miss was the 2001 Lakers, at No. 11. That makes WEV the right tool for one question: who is a real contender. It is not built to pick the single champion, and it doesn't.
Champion record from the full 805-team-season panel. Held out: a spec frozen on 2000-2015 found 7 of 8 champions from 2016-2023 in its top five.
Read more: The four tests preview.