From the newsletter · 2026-10-10
Source essay: 2026-10-10. Research companion published 2026-10-14.
NBA Contender Tests: Qualification and the Exceptions
Teams passing all four preseason tests won 16 of the last 25 titles, but the exceptions matter too. This preview examines qualification alongside trades and returning stars, explaining why a roster's starting profile can change. It also investigates whether high-usage anchors retain their qualifying rating after switching teams.
105teams passed all four tests since 2001-02
16 of 25titles those teams won
8 in 10high-usage 1.73 players who kept it after moving
Three findings
- Since 2001-02, the 105 teams that passed all four tests won 16 of 25 titles. The 345 that passed none won one, the 2008 Celtics.
- Of the nine champions that missed a test, five got there through a trade or a star returning from injury, changes last season's numbers couldn't see.
- Players who changed teams with a 1.73 rating while using at least 28% of possessions kept it eight times in ten, which is why trades can create a contender overnight.
Share of teams that won the title, by tests passed
Preseason profiles, 2001-02 to 2025-26.
These are the headline numbers. The argument, the players and the method are in the full essay.