Metric · Teams
Payroll Fragility
Teams lose when the players they pay most don't play. The link has run the same direction in every one of 16 seasons.
| Finding | Value |
|---|---|
| Fragility vs. regular-season win % | r = −0.394 |
| Seasons with a negative link | 16 of 16 |
| Team-seasons | 480 (2011-2026) |
| Top-earner availability vs. win % | r = +0.47 |
| Payroll concentration vs. win % | r = +0.28 |
What drives it
The mechanism is availability: whether a team's highest-paid players are on the floor. That link is r = +0.47. Paying stars is not the problem. Payroll concentration, how much of the cap goes to the top, is positively tied to winning at +0.28, because good teams pay their stars. The risk is paying them and then playing without them.
Basketball-Reference salary tables, 2011-2026, 480 team-seasons; additive specification. Median season-level correlation −0.41.
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