NBA Injuries and Payroll: The Cost of Missing Stars

Of $3.15 billion paid to teams' largest contracts, $1.06 billion was allocated to games those players missed. This analysis relates availability to winning and examines previously successful teams whose top earners missed substantial time. The results describe payroll exposure and historical declines, not an inevitable outcome for every injured roster.

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$1.06Bof $3.15B paid for games stars missed

34%the highest share in 16 seasons

3.1more wins per 10 percentage points of top-three availability

Three findings

Of the $3.15 billion paid to each team's three biggest contracts in 2025-26, $1.06 billion went to games those players missed: 34%, the highest share in 16 seasons.
Across the panel, every 10 percentage points of top-three availability was associated with about 3.1 more wins.
Of 121 teams coming off a .600 season, the 28 whose top three played 70% or less of their games lost 14.2 wins and averaged 40.

Where the top-three salary went, 2025-26

Paid for games played$2.09B

Paid for games missed$1.06B

Each team's three largest contracts, allocated by games available.

These are the headline numbers. The argument, the players and the method are in the full essay.