Cleveland Cavaliers 2026-27
The Cleveland Cavaliers went 52-30 in 2025-26 and ranked 9th in net rating and 15th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 48.5. Our model has them at 46 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 48-34, the No. 5 seed in the East. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
Does Peyton Watson, acquired in a costly sign-and-trade, hold the fifth starting spot over Jaylon Tyson, Hezonja or Merrill, and can the Harden-Mitchell backcourt defend well enough?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: medium.
Bench rotation
Jaylon Tyson · Sam Merrill · Craig Porter Jr. · Tyrese Proctor · Mario Hezonja · Nae'Qwan Tomlin · Thomas Bryant · Khalifa Diop
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
- Donovan Mitchell 2.69
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Donovan Mitchell 70; Evan Mobley 65; James Harden 70 (83% of possible games)
Injuries
No significant injuries reported.
Rookies to watch
- Meleek Thomas (No. 34): Acquired via SAC. Scored 11 in the Oct 8 preseason opener vs BOS. Role unclear.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | G | 30 | $50.1M | 2.69 | 2025-26 | |
| Evan Mobley | C | 25 | $50.1M | 1.29 | 2025-26 | |
| James Harden | G | 37 | $42.3M | 0.64 | 2025-26 | |
| Jarrett Allen | C | 28 | $28.0M | 1.60 | 2025-26 | |
| Sam Merrill | G | 30 | $9.2M | 1.69 | 2025-26 | |
| Jaylon Tyson | G | 23 | $3.7M | 0.64 | 2025-26 | |
| Nae'Qwan Tomlin | F | 25 | $2.4M | 0.44 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Craig Porter Jr. | G | 26 | $2.4M | 0.50 | 2025-26 | |
| Tyrese Proctor | G | 22 | $2.2M | — | ||
| Rashaun AgeeRookie | F | 25 | — | — | ||
| Zack AustinRookie | F | 25 | — | — | ||
| Thomas Bryant | C | 29 | — | — | ||
| Khalifa DiopRookie | C | 24 | — | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Tristan Enaruna | F | 25 | — | — | ||
| Mario Hezonja | F | 31 | — | — | ||
| Curtis Jones | G | 25 | — | — | ||
| Riley Minix | F | 26 | — | — | ||
| Kadary Richmond | G | 25 | — | — | ||
| Jaxson RobinsonRookie | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| Meleek ThomasRookie | G | 20 | — | — | ||
| Ernest Udeh Jr.Rookie | C | 22 | — | — | ||
| Peyton Watson | G | 24 | — | 1.35 | 2025-26 | |
| Noam YaacovRookie | G | 21 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Cleveland Cavaliers win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 48.5 (BetMGM 47.5 · BetRivers 48.5 · Caesars 48.5 · DraftKings 47.5 · bet365 48.5).
How many games will the Cavaliers win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 48-34. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Cavaliers?
No significant injuries were reported as of October 13, 2026.
East projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 52.5 | 52-30 |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 51.5 | 52-30 |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 48.5 | 50-32 |
| 4 | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 46.5 | 46-36 |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 46.5 | 45-37 |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 9 | Atlanta Hawks | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 10 | Charlotte Hornets | 38.5 | 40-42 |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 43.5 | 40-42 |
| 12 | Washington Wizards | 34.5 | 32-50 |
| 13 | Chicago Bulls | 29.5 | 30-52 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Bucks | 25.5 | 27-55 |
| 15 | Brooklyn Nets | 24.5 | 25-57 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.