Washington Wizards 2026-27
The Washington Wizards went 17-65 in 2025-26 and ranked 30th in net rating and 30th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 34.5. Our model has them at 26 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 32-50, the No. 12 seed in the East. The model sits 8.4 wins below the line, so our call is the under, one of our six best bets.
The question
How quickly do Trae Young, Anthony Davis and No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa jell, and how does Keefe split minutes on a crowded wing rotation for a team coming off 17-65?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: medium.
Bench rotation
Khris Middleton · Deandre Ayton · Bilal Coulibaly · Tre Johnson · Bub Carrington · Will Riley · Justin Champagnie · Tre Mann
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
None. Every champion since 2001-02 had at least one. Why that matters.
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Anthony Davis 20; Trae Young 15; AJ Dybantsa (22% of possible games)
Injuries
- Jamir Watkins · Out for seasonTorn ACL, surgery done (Jul 30)
- Tristan Vukcevic · OutHip (Oct 1)
- Khris Middleton · Questionable (Rotowire Oct 12)Detail not reported
- Tre Mann · Questionable (Rotowire Oct 12)Detail not reported
Rookies to watch
- AJ Dybantsa (No. 1): Projected starter. 11 pts, 4 stl in 23 min in the Oct 8 preseason win at NYK. NBA.com says he debuts Oct 21 vs MIL.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | F | 33 | $58.5M | 0.24 | 2024-25 | Day-To-Day |
| Trae Young | G | 28 | $49.0M | 0.16 | 2024-25 | |
| Alex Sarr | C | 21 | $12.4M | -3.23 | 2025-26 | |
| Bilal Coulibaly | G | 22 | $9.2M | -2.49 | 2025-26 | |
| Tre Johnson | G | 20 | $8.6M | -2.39 | 2025-26 | |
| Deandre Ayton | C | 28 | $8.1M | -0.05 | 2025-26 | |
| Tre Mann | G | 25 | $8.0M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Bub Carrington | G | 21 | $4.9M | -2.78 | 2025-26 | |
| Will Riley | G | 20 | $3.7M | -2.84 | 2025-26 | |
| Kyshawn George | F | 22 | $3.1M | -2.79 | 2025-26 | |
| Tristan Vukcevic | F | 23 | $3.0M | — | Out | |
| Justin Champagnie | F | 25 | $2.7M | -1.78 | 2025-26 | |
| Jamir Watkins | G | 25 | $2.2M | -1.15 | 2025-26 | Out |
| Reece Beekman | G | 25 | — | — | ||
| AJ DybantsaRookie | F | 19 | — | — | ||
| Anthony Gill | F | 33 | — | — | ||
| Jazian Gortman | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Trevor Keels | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Skal Labissiere | C | 30 | — | — | ||
| Chris Livingston | F | 22 | — | — | ||
| Khris Middleton | F | 35 | — | -2.18 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Felix OkparaRookie | F | 22 | — | — | ||
| Steve Settle IIIRookie | F | 25 | — | — | ||
| Alondes Williams | G | 27 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Washington Wizards win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 34.5 (BetMGM 34.5 · Caesars 35.5 · DraftKings 34.5 · bet365 34.5).
How many games will the Wizards win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 32-50. The model sits 8.4 wins below the line, so our call is the under, one of our six best bets.
Who is injured for the Wizards?
Jamir Watkins: Out for season (Torn ACL, surgery done (Jul 30)); Tristan Vukcevic: Out (Hip (Oct 1)); Khris Middleton: Questionable (Rotowire Oct 12) (Detail not reported); Tre Mann: Questionable (Rotowire Oct 12) (Detail not reported).
East projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Knicks | 52.5 | 52-30 |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 51.5 | 52-30 |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 48.5 | 50-32 |
| 4 | Philadelphia 76ers | 50.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 6 | Toronto Raptors | 46.5 | 46-36 |
| 7 | Miami Heat | 46.5 | 45-37 |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 9 | Atlanta Hawks | 43.5 | 43-39 |
| 10 | Charlotte Hornets | 38.5 | 40-42 |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 43.5 | 40-42 |
| 12 | Washington Wizards | 34.5 | 32-50 |
| 13 | Chicago Bulls | 29.5 | 30-52 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Bucks | 25.5 | 27-55 |
| 15 | Brooklyn Nets | 24.5 | 25-57 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.