Golden State Warriors 2026-27
The Golden State Warriors went 37-45 in 2025-26 and ranked 20th in net rating and 17th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 37.5. Our model has them at 42 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 38-44, the No. 9 seed in the West. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
With Porzingis out indefinitely and Butler not due back until midseason, can Golden State find a starting frontcourt and enough health around Curry to stay in the West race?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: low.
Bench rotation
De'Anthony Melton · Will Richard · Gary Payton II · Dalen Terry · Charles Bassey · Georges Niang · Gui Santos
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
- Jimmy Butler III 2.06
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Stephen Curry 43; Jimmy Butler III 38; Draymond Green 68 (56% of possible games)
Injuries
- Kristaps Porzingis · Out indefinitelyUnspecified health issue; missed all of camp. Kerr: "Nothing new to report" / "definitely concerning" (Oct 10)
- Jimmy Butler III · OutKnee; recovering from a torn ACL (Eurohoops) / knee surgery (NBA.com)
- Moses Moody · OutRuptured left patellar tendon; cleared for light on-court activity (listed Sep 28)
- Al Horford · Day-to-dayRuled out of the Oct 6 game after a pregame workout; reason not reported
Rookies to watch
- Yaxel Lendeborg (No. 11): Summer League MVP. 17 pts and 9 reb vs LAL on Oct 6. Expected to play both forward spots and some small-ball C while Porzingis is out.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | G | 38 | $62.6M | 1.16 | 2025-26 | |
| Jimmy Butler III | F | 37 | $56.8M | 2.06 | 2025-26 | Out |
| Draymond Green | F | 36 | $27.7M | -0.55 | 2025-26 | |
| Moses Moody | G | 24 | $12.5M | 0.49 | 2025-26 | Out |
| Al Horford | C | 40 | $6.0M | 1.72 | 2024-25 | Day-To-Day |
| Brandin Podziemski | G | 23 | $5.7M | 0.07 | 2025-26 | |
| Gui Santos | F | 24 | $4.6M | 0.26 | 2025-26 | |
| Will Richard | G | 23 | $2.2M | -0.47 | 2025-26 | |
| Charles Bassey | C | 25 | — | — | ||
| LJ Cryer | G | 25 | — | — | ||
| Graham IkeRookie | F | 24 | — | — | ||
| Miles Kelly | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Yaxel LendeborgRookie | F | 24 | — | — | ||
| Malevy Leons | F | 27 | — | — | ||
| De'Anthony Melton | G | 28 | — | 0.97 | 2025-26 | |
| Georges Niang | F | 33 | — | 1.11 | 2024-25 | |
| Gary Payton II | G | 33 | — | -0.98 | 2025-26 | |
| Kristaps Porzingis | C | 31 | — | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Dalen Terry | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| Alex Toohey | F | 22 | — | — | ||
| Brandon Williams | G | 26 | — | -1.16 | 2025-26 |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Golden State Warriors win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 37.5 (BetRivers 38.5 · Caesars 37.5 · DraftKings 37.5).
How many games will the Warriors win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 38-44. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Warriors?
Kristaps Porzingis: Out indefinitely (Unspecified health issue; missed all of camp. Kerr: "Nothing new to report" / "definitely concerning" (Oct 10)); Jimmy Butler III: Out (Knee; recovering from a torn ACL (Eurohoops) / knee surgery (NBA.com)); Moses Moody: Out (Ruptured left patellar tendon; cleared for light on-court activity (listed Sep 28)); Al Horford: Day-to-day (Ruled out of the Oct 6 game after a pregame workout; reason not reported).
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.