San Antonio Spurs 2026-27
The San Antonio Spurs went 62-20 in 2025-26 and ranked 2nd in net rating and 3rd in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 60.5. Our model has them at 60 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 60-22, the No. 2 seed in the West. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
Does Dylan Harper's preseason push him into the starting five next to Fox and Castle, and can the Spurs find a reliable backup center behind Wembanyama?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: low.
Bench rotation
Dylan Harper · Keldon Johnson · Harrison Barnes · Tobias Harris · Luke Kornet · Jordan McLaughlin · Carter Bryant · Tarris Reed Jr.
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
- Victor Wembanyama 6.44
- De'Aaron Fox 2.50
- Stephon Castle 2.47
- Devin Vassell 2.15
- Dylan Harper 2.14
- Julian Champagnie 2.09
- Tobias Harris 1.97
- Keldon Johnson 1.82
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
De'Aaron Fox 72; Devin Vassell 67; Keldon Johnson 82 (88% of possible games)
Injuries
- Jayden Quaintance · OutListed out on Rotowire (Oct 12); injury detail not found
- De'Aaron Fox · Day-to-dayToo sore after practice to be cleared Oct 8; load management
Rookies to watch
- Tarris Reed Jr. (No. 26): Acquired via DEN. NBA.com names him a candidate to push Luke Kornet for backup center minutes.
- Jayden Quaintance (No. 20): Currently listed out.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | G | 28 | $49.8M | 2.50 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Devin Vassell | G | 26 | $27.0M | 2.15 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Keldon Johnson | F | 27 | $17.5M | 1.82 | 2025-26 | |
| Victor Wembanyama | F | 22 | $16.9M | 6.44 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Dylan Harper | G | 20 | $13.0M | 2.14 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Luke Kornet | C | 31 | $10.4M | 0.50 | 2025-26 | |
| Stephon Castle | G | 21 | $10.0M | 2.47 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Carter Bryant | F | 20 | $5.1M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Julian Champagnie | F | 25 | $3.0M | 2.09 | 2025-26 | |
| Harrison Barnes | F | 34 | — | 1.29 | 2025-26 | |
| Maliq BrownRookie | F | 22 | — | — | ||
| RJ Davis | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| Jon ElmoreRookie | G | 30 | — | — | ||
| Ja'Kobi GillespieRookie | G | 22 | — | — | ||
| Tobias Harris | F | 34 | — | 1.97 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| David Jones Garcia | F | 24 | — | — | ||
| Jordan McLaughlin | G | 30 | — | — | ||
| Taelon Peter | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| Jayden QuaintanceRookie | F | 19 | — | — | Out | |
| Tarris Reed Jr.Rookie | C | 23 | — | — | ||
| Malik Williams | C | 28 | — | — | Day-To-Day |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the San Antonio Spurs win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 60.5 (BetMGM 59.5 · BetRivers 60.5 · Caesars 59.5 · DraftKings 60.5 · bet365 60.5).
How many games will the Spurs win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 60-22. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Spurs?
Jayden Quaintance: Out (Listed out on Rotowire (Oct 12); injury detail not found); De'Aaron Fox: Day-to-day (Too sore after practice to be cleared Oct 8; load management).
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.