Los Angeles Lakers 2026-27
The Los Angeles Lakers went 53-29 in 2025-26 and ranked 14th in net rating and 19th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 45.5. Our model has them at 40 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 44-38, the No. 6 seed in the West. The model sits 5.7 wins below the line, so our call is the under.
The question
Who fills the two open starting spots around Doncic, Reaves and Kessler on a roster that brings back only 42% of last season's minutes and has lost LeBron James?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: low.
Bench rotation
Ziaire Williams · Jarred Vanderbilt · Sandro Mamukelashvili · Collin Sexton · Jaden Hardy · Matisse Thybulle · Dalton Knecht · Kevon Looney
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
None. Every champion since 2001-02 had at least one. Why that matters.
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Luka Doncic 64; Austin Reaves 51; Walker Kessler 5 (55% of possible games)
Injuries
- Walker Kessler · Day-to-dayFinger; sat Oct 6 and was sidelined again Oct 8 (Rotoballer headline)
- Austin Reaves · Day-to-day / playingAnkle; sat Oct 6. Later made his preseason debut with 8 assists (Rotoballer headline).
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | G | 27 | $49.5M | 1.64 | 2025-26 | |
| Jarred Vanderbilt | F | 27 | $12.4M | 0.03 | 2025-26 | |
| Kevon Looney | F | 30 | $8.0M | — | ||
| Ziaire Williams | F | 25 | $6.3M | -2.08 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Jaden Hardy | G | 24 | $6.0M | — | ||
| Jake LaRavia | F | 24 | $6.0M | -0.01 | 2025-26 | |
| Dalton Knecht | F | 25 | $4.2M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Bronny James | G | 22 | $2.3M | — | ||
| Adou Thiero | F | 22 | $2.2M | — | ||
| Cameron CarrRookie | G | 21 | — | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Rafael CastroRookie | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| Quentin Grimes | G | 26 | — | 0.03 | 2025-26 | |
| Arthur Kaluma | F | 24 | — | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Walker Kessler | C | 25 | — | -1.51 | 2024-25 | Day-To-Day |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | F | 27 | — | 1.11 | 2025-26 | |
| Chris Manon | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| AK OkerekeRookie | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| Austin Reaves | G | 28 | — | 1.54 | 2025-26 | |
| Collin Sexton | G | 27 | — | -0.99 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Cole Swider | F | 27 | — | — | ||
| Matisse Thybulle | G | 29 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Los Angeles Lakers win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 45.5 (BetMGM 46.5 · BetRivers 45.5 · Caesars 46.5 · DraftKings 45.5 · bet365 45.5).
How many games will the Lakers win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 44-38. The model sits 5.7 wins below the line, so our call is the under.
Who is injured for the Lakers?
Walker Kessler: Day-to-day (Finger; sat Oct 6 and was sidelined again Oct 8 (Rotoballer headline)); Austin Reaves: Day-to-day / playing (Ankle; sat Oct 6. Later made his preseason debut with 8 assists (Rotoballer headline).).
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.