Oklahoma City Thunder 2026-27
The Oklahoma City Thunder went 64-18 in 2025-26 and ranked 1st in net rating and 1st in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 62.5. Our model has them at 65 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 63-19, the No. 1 seed in the West. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
Who replaces Lu Dort in the starting five (Wallace vs Ajay Mitchell), and can Jalen Williams stay healthy to keep the Thunder ahead of San Antonio?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: medium.
Bench rotation
Ajay Mitchell · Alex Caruso · Jared McCain · Jaylin Williams · Kenrich Williams · Aday Mara
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6.59
- Chet Holmgren 4.26
- Ajay Mitchell 3.75
- Isaiah Hartenstein 2.83
- Jalen Williams 2.79 (2024-25)
- Alex Caruso 2.74
- Jaylin Williams 1.94
- Cason Wallace 1.76
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Chet Holmgren 69; Jalen Williams 33; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 68 (69% of possible games)
Injuries
- Nikola Topic · Out (preseason)Recovering from injury; 'not yet ready to return' per Sam Presti
- Thomas Sorber · Out (preseason)Recovering from injury; 'not yet ready to return' per Sam Presti
Rookies to watch
- Aday Mara (No. 12): 22 pts on 10-10 shooting in 25 min vs MIL (Oct 7). Rotowire's expected starter at C for Oct 12 with regulars resting.
- Bennett Stirtz (No. 16): Acquired via MEM. Played in the Oct 6 preseason opener.
- Otega Oweh (No. 41): Two-way contract (acquired via MIA).
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chet Holmgren | C | 24 | $41.5M | 4.26 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Jalen Williams | G | 25 | $41.5M | 2.79 | 2024-25 | Day-To-Day |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | G | 28 | $40.8M | 6.59 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | C | 28 | $28.5M | 2.83 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Alex Caruso | G | 32 | $19.6M | 2.74 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Jaylin Williams | F | 24 | $7.8M | 1.94 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Cason Wallace | G | 22 | $7.4M | 1.76 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Kenrich Williams | G | 31 | $7.2M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Nikola Topic | G | 21 | $5.4M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Thomas SorberRookie | C | 20 | $4.9M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Jared McCain | G | 22 | $4.4M | 1.04 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Ajay Mitchell | G | 24 | $2.9M | 3.75 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Brooks Barnhizer | F | 24 | — | — | ||
| Josh DixRookie | G | 22 | — | — | ||
| Andrew HolifieldRookie | F | 22 | — | — | ||
| Aday MaraRookie | C | 21 | — | — | ||
| Robert McCray VRookie | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| Otega OwehRookie | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Anthony PritchardRookie | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Zhaire Smith | G | 27 | — | — | ||
| Bennett StirtzRookie | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Christoph TillyRookie | C | 23 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Oklahoma City Thunder win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 62.5 (BetMGM 62.5 · BetRivers 61.5 · Caesars 62.5 · DraftKings 62.5 · bet365 61.5).
How many games will the Thunder win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 63-19. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Thunder?
Nikola Topic: Out (preseason) (Recovering from injury; 'not yet ready to return' per Sam Presti); Thomas Sorber: Out (preseason) (Recovering from injury; 'not yet ready to return' per Sam Presti).
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.