Dallas Mavericks 2026-27
The Dallas Mavericks went 26-56 in 2025-26 and ranked 23rd in net rating and 20th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 33.5. Our model has them at 31 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 33-49, the No. 11 seed in the West. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
With a first-year coach openly undecided, how does Dallas sort a glut of bigs (Washington, Lively, Gafford, Aldama, Morez Johnson) around Cooper Flagg while Kyrie Irving ramps back from his ACL tear and trade rumors?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: low.
Bench rotation
Naji Marshall · Zaccharie Risacher · Marcus Sasser · Caleb Martin · Dereck Lively II · Santi Aldama · Dwight Powell · Morez Johnson Jr.
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
None. Every champion since 2001-02 had at least one. Why that matters.
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Kyrie Irving 0; P.J. Washington 56; Daniel Gafford 55 (33% of possible games)
Injuries
- Dereck Lively II · OutFoot; not cleared for training camp (listed Sep 23). Did not play the Oct 9 preseason game.
- Santi Aldama · OutRecovering from right knee surgery; did not play Oct 9
- Kyrie Irving · Ramping upBack from a March 2025 left ACL tear. Rested Oct 9 to manage his left knee; was scheduled to play Oct 11 in Macao.
- P.J. Washington · UnclearDid not play Oct 9; reason not reported
Rookies to watch
- Morez Johnson Jr. (No. 9): Michigan forward drafted on May's recommendation. Part of a crowded big-man rotation.
- Tobi Lawal (No. 48): 13 pts vs HOU on Oct 9 in Macao.
- Sergio De Larrea (No. 25): Acquired via NYK (Land of Basketball draft notes). Listed on DAL by RealGM. No role reporting found.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | G | 34 | $39.4M | 0.98 | 2024-25 | |
| P.J. Washington | F | 28 | $19.8M | -1.46 | 2025-26 | |
| Daniel Gafford | F | 28 | $17.3M | -1.44 | 2025-26 | |
| Santi Aldama | F | 25 | $17.0M | -0.40 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Cooper Flagg | F | 19 | $14.5M | -1.45 | 2025-26 | |
| Zaccharie Risacher | F | 21 | $13.8M | -0.09 | 2025-26 | |
| Caleb Martin | F | 31 | $10.0M | — | ||
| Naji Marshall | F | 28 | $9.4M | -1.03 | 2025-26 | |
| Max Christie | G | 23 | $8.3M | -1.29 | 2025-26 | |
| Dereck Lively II | C | 22 | $7.2M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Marcus Sasser | G | 26 | $5.2M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Tarik BiberovicRookie | F | 25 | — | — | ||
| Moussa Cisse | C | 24 | — | — | ||
| Sergio de LarreaRookie | F | 20 | — | — | ||
| Jett Howard | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Morez Johnson Jr.Rookie | F | 20 | — | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Tobi LawalRookie | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| Seth Lundy | G | 26 | — | — | ||
| John Poulakidas | G | 23 | — | — | ||
| Dwight Powell | F | 35 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Dallas Mavericks win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 33.5 (BetMGM 34.5 · BetRivers 33.5 · Caesars 34.5 · DraftKings 33.5 · bet365 33.5).
How many games will the Mavericks win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 33-49. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Mavericks?
Dereck Lively II: Out (Foot; not cleared for training camp (listed Sep 23). Did not play the Oct 9 preseason game.); Santi Aldama: Out (Recovering from right knee surgery; did not play Oct 9); Kyrie Irving: Ramping up (Back from a March 2025 left ACL tear. Rested Oct 9 to manage his left knee; was scheduled to play Oct 11 in Macao.); P.J. Washington: Unclear (Did not play Oct 9; reason not reported).
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.