Denver Nuggets 2026-27
The Denver Nuggets went 54-28 in 2025-26 and ranked 7th in net rating and 21st in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 48.5. Our model has them at 52 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 49-33, the No. 3 seed in the West. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
Will 37-year-old DeMar DeRozan accept and succeed in a sixth-man role, and can a thin bench and a defense that ranked 21st two years running hold up behind a healthy Jokic-Murray-Gordon core?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: high.
Bench rotation
DeMar DeRozan · Tyus Jones · Marvin Bagley III · Julian Strawther · Spencer Jones · Zeke Nnaji · Alpha Diallo · DaRon Holmes II
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
- Nikola Jokic 4.14
- Aaron Gordon 3.24
- Jamal Murray 2.46
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Nikola Jokic 65; Jamal Murray 75; Aaron Gordon 36 (75% of possible games)
Injuries
No significant injuries reported.
Rookies to watch
- Trevon Brazile (No. 35): Acquired via SAS. Roundtable says he could contribute as a high-energy rookie. Alpha Diallo is a 27-year-old NBA rookie, signed as a free agent.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | C | 31 | $59.0M | 4.14 | 2025-26 | |
| Jamal Murray | G | 29 | $50.1M | 2.46 | 2025-26 | |
| Aaron Gordon | F | 31 | $33.7M | 3.24 | 2025-26 | |
| DeMar DeRozan | G | 37 | $25.7M | -2.88 | 2025-26 | |
| Cameron Johnson | F | 30 | $23.1M | 1.69 | 2025-26 | |
| Christian Braun | G | 25 | $21.6M | 1.60 | 2025-26 | |
| Zeke Nnaji | F | 25 | $7.5M | — | ||
| Cam Whitmore | F | 22 | $5.5M | — | ||
| Julian Strawther | G | 24 | $4.8M | — | ||
| DaRon Holmes II | F | 24 | $3.4M | — | ||
| Marvin Bagley III | F | 27 | — | -1.94 | 2025-26 | |
| Trevon BrazileRookie | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| Alpha DialloRookie | F | 29 | — | — | ||
| Dane GoodwinRookie | G | 26 | — | — | ||
| Coleman HawkinsRookie | F | 24 | — | — | ||
| Bryce HopkinsRookie | F | 24 | — | — | ||
| Spencer Jones | F | 25 | — | 0.00 | 2025-26 | Day-To-Day |
| Tyus Jones | G | 30 | — | -0.36 | 2024-25 | |
| Emanuel Miller | F | 26 | — | — | ||
| Ryan Nembhard | G | 23 | — | -0.16 | 2025-26 | |
| Lonnie Walker IV | G | 27 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the Denver Nuggets win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 48.5 (BetMGM 49.5 · BetRivers 48.5 · Caesars 48.5 · DraftKings 48.5 · bet365 48.5).
How many games will the Nuggets win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 49-33. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Nuggets?
No significant injuries were reported as of October 13, 2026.
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.