New Orleans Pelicans 2026-27
The New Orleans Pelicans went 26-56 in 2025-26 and ranked 21st in net rating and 25th in defense. The sportsbooks set their 2026-27 win total at 28.5. Our model has them at 32 wins, and our projected record, which weights the line three to one, is 29-53, the No. 14 seed in the West. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
The question
Does Mosley start the veterans or hand bigger roles to 2025 lottery picks Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen, and can Zion stay available for a team that 'virtually ran back' a 26-win roster?
Projected starters
Reporting confidence: medium.
Bench rotation
Jeremiah Fears · Derik Queen · Bennedict Mathurin
Players at 1.73 or better on AQI
None. Every champion since 2001-02 had at least one. Why that matters.
Top-three salaries, 2025-26 games
Zion Williamson 62; Jordan Poole 39; Dejounte Murray 14 (49% of possible games)
Injuries
No significant injuries reported.
Roster and contracts
| Player | Pos | Age | 2026-27 salary | AQI | AQI season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | F | 26 | $42.2M | -0.63 | 2025-26 | |
| Jordan Poole | G | 27 | $34.0M | -4.01 | 2024-25 | |
| Dejounte Murray | G | 30 | $32.8M | — | Day-To-Day | |
| Trey Murphy III | F | 26 | $27.0M | -0.88 | 2025-26 | |
| Herbert Jones | F | 28 | $14.9M | -0.21 | 2025-26 | |
| Jeremiah Fears | G | 19 | $7.9M | -1.54 | 2025-26 | |
| Saddiq Bey | G | 27 | $6.4M | -0.91 | 2025-26 | |
| Derik Queen | C | 21 | $5.4M | -1.53 | 2025-26 | |
| Yves Missi | C | 22 | $3.5M | -0.20 | 2025-26 | |
| AJ Johnson | G | 21 | $3.2M | — | ||
| Trendon Watford | F | 25 | $2.8M | — | ||
| Bryce McGowens | G | 23 | $2.6M | — | ||
| Kobe Bufkin | G | 23 | $2.5M | — | ||
| Karlo Matkovic | F | 25 | $2.3M | — | ||
| Malik DiaRookie | F | 22 | — | — | ||
| Caleb Houstan | F | 23 | — | — | ||
| DeAndre Jordan | C | 38 | — | — | ||
| Christian Koloko | C | 26 | — | — | ||
| Bennedict Mathurin | G | 24 | — | -1.14 | 2025-26 | |
| Jaron Pierre Jr.Rookie | G | 24 | — | — | ||
| Julian Reese | F | 23 | — | — |
AQI is a player's on-court net rating × usage × (true shooting ÷ 0.550): his 2025-26 number if he played 1,000 minutes, otherwise his latest 1,500-minute season. Highlighted players are at or above 1.73, the floor every champion's best player has cleared. Salaries and injury designations from ESPN as of October 13, 2026.
Common questions
What is the New Orleans Pelicans win total for 2026-27?
The median win total across BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and BetRivers is 28.5 (BetMGM 27.5 · BetRivers 28.5 · Caesars 29.5 · DraftKings 28.5 · bet365 28.5).
How many games will the Pelicans win in 2026-27?
DataDunkNBA projects 29-53. The model and the line are within five wins of each other, so there's no lean.
Who is injured for the Pelicans?
No significant injuries were reported as of October 13, 2026.
West projected standings
| Seed | Team | Line | Our record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 62.5 | 63-19 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 60.5 | 60-22 |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 48.5 | 49-33 |
| 4 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 48.5 | 48-34 |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 47.5 | 47-35 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 45.5 | 44-38 |
| 7 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 | 41-41 |
| 8 | Phoenix Suns | 39.5 | 40-42 |
| 9 | Golden State Warriors | 37.5 | 38-44 |
| 10 | Utah Jazz | 37.5 | 35-47 |
| 11 | Dallas Mavericks | 33.5 | 33-49 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28.5 | 31-51 |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 29.5 | 29-53 |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 28.5 | 29-53 |
| 15 | Sacramento Kings | 20.5 | 22-60 |
Read the full reasoning for every team in Vegas vs. the Numbers: our 2026-27 predictions, and how the contender tests work in the four tests preview and the AQI explainer.