From the newsletter · 2026-10-07
Source essay: 2026-10-07. Research companion published 2026-10-14.
NBA Second Stars: Team Quality Beyond the Leading Player
Across 775 teams, second-player AQI tracks winning slightly more closely than first-player AQI. Teams pairing a 3.5 star with a 2.5 sidekick averaged 61 wins, versus 56 with a lesser sidekick. The championship comparisons add another distinction: these ratings gauge team quality rather than establish what causes success.
0.923second player's AQI vs. win% (775 teams)
0.902best player's AQI vs. win%
61 vs 56wins with and without a 2.5 sidekick
Three findings
- Across 775 teams, the second-best player's AQI tracks win percentage slightly better than the best player's, 0.923 to 0.902. Because on-court net rating is shared, read it as a gauge of the team around the star.
- Teams with a 3.5 star and a 2.5 sidekick averaged 61 wins; the same caliber of star with a lesser sidekick averaged 56.
- June still goes to the star. Among each year's four best records, the team with the best star won the title 13 times, the best sidekick 10 and the best record 8.
Who wins the title among each year's four best records
Counts overlap when one team leads more than one category.
These are the headline numbers. The argument, the players and the method are in the full essay.