Rim protection is contest, not deterrence
In the team data, rim protection didn't keep opponents away from the basket. It made the shots at the basket worse.
| Test, 30 teams, 2024-25 | Correlation | p-value |
|---|---|---|
| Rim suppression vs. how often opponents attack the rim | r = +0.01 | 0.95 |
| Rim suppression vs. opponent points per possession | r = −0.45 | 0.013 |
The result
Deterrence is a claim about frequency: a great shot-blocker should mean fewer rim attempts. Across the 30 teams, the link between rim suppression and rim-attempt frequency is r = +0.01: no detectable link in this sample. Opponents keep coming.
What changes is what happens when they get there. Rim suppression tracks opponent points per possession at r = −0.45. The value is in the contest.
Does it carry over?
Rim defense measured from NBA tracking data (shots under six feet, 2023-24 to 2025-26) repeats from one season to the next at about r = 0.40. Players who changed teams repeated at 0.34 and players who stayed at 0.45, a difference the data can't yet separate from chance.
Team-level tests on the 30 teams in 2024-25, permutation p-values. Persistence from NBA.com defensive tracking, under 6 feet.
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