Lineup hardness: when to hold and when to shoot
Who is on the floor on defense changes what a good possession is. Against hard lineups the right shot comes sooner.
| Defensive lineup, 2024-25 playoffs | Points per possession |
|---|---|
| Softest quarter | 0.928 |
| Hardest quarter | 0.866 |
| Gap | 6.7% |
The rule it produces
Against soft lineups, holding the ball and forcing the defense to rotate pays. Against hard lineups the next option is usually worse than the one in hand, so the right move is to shoot. The decision flips with the defense on the floor.
Why lineups, not players
On 66,006 playoff possessions across five postseasons with all five defenders identified, a model that knows which five defenders are on the floor is significant (p = 0.010). The same model without defender identity is not (p = 0.78). Who is guarding you is load-bearing.
The 6.7% quartile gap is from the 2024-25 playoffs alone, n = 13,736 possessions. The 66,006-possession result is a separate test across five playoffs (2021-22 to 2025-26).
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